by Nada Welker | Nov 30, 2022 | Automotive Industry, Future Trends, New Mobility, Smart City
Fully autonomous vehicles are still rarely encountered on public roads, although autonomous driving has long since ceased to be mere dreams of the future. The legal framework for fully autonomous vehicles is in place: the “Automated Driving Act”, which has already been in force in Germany for level 3 vehicles since 2017, was extended to include level 4 autonomous vehicles in July 2021 by the German Government. Autonomous vehicles are classified in several levels: Levels 0-2 denote the classic self-driving vehicle, which in some cases already receives automated support from the vehicle (from Level 2), for example, through a lane departure warning system. Level 3 marks the beginning of highly automated driving, in which the vehicle can already take on certain tasks (such as highway driving) independently. In level 4, driving is fully automated and an active driver is no longer necessary. The vehicle then becomes fully autonomous in stage 5.
The slow progress in the entry of autonomous vehicles into road traffic is due both to the complexity of the artificial intelligence used in these vehicles and to the high safety requirements they must meet. In order to sufficiently and reliably test software systems of autonomous vehicles, conventional test methods such as test drives are no longer sufficient: They take too long and are too imprecise.
Franz Wotawa from the Institute for Software Technology at TU Graz, explains:
“Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven around 200 million kilometers to prove their reliability – especially for accident scenarios. That’s 10,000 times more test kilometers than are required for conventional cars.”
Wotawa’s research team, which is addressing the safety assurance challenges required for autonomous vehicles, has explored a more efficient testing approach: simulating driving environments using ontologies.
Ontologies for the automatic generation of test scenarios
In Artificial Intelligence, ontologies represent knowledge bases that provide intelligent information systems with relevant information about a specific application domain, on the basis of which they make decisions. This knowledge includes, among other things, entities, i.e., uniquely definable and delimitable units, their behaviors and relationships to each other. Rules and constraints may also be explicitly defined. Transferred to the field of autonomous vehicles, ontologies thus enable intelligent vehicles to understand their driving environment, which is essential for the predictive and risk-minimizing behavior of vehicles in traffic. To this end, the ontologies are fed, for example, with information about the structure of roads, about road users or traffic control elements such as traffic lights. Based on this information, algorithms can generate a multiple of simulations to test the behavior of autonomous vehicles in these scenarios.
Ontology-based testing is faster and more reliable
With the help of ontologies, not only can countless simulation scenarios be generated and tested in a very short time, but also those that are very difficult to reproduce or that humans themselves do not even think of. In a generated test scenario around Wotawa’s team, for example, it was determined that a brake assistance system had not simultaneously detected people approaching the vehicle from different directions and initiated a braking maneuver that would have resulted in one person being injured.
“We have uncovered serious weaknesses in automated driving functions in initial experimental tests. Without these automatically generated simulation scenarios, the weak points would not have been identified so quickly: 9 out of 319 test cases examined resulted in accidents.“ (Franz Wotawa)
Thus, with an ontology-based approach, security vulnerabilities of autonomous vehicles can be detected and patched faster.
Deception of autonomous vehicles
Meanwhile, an example from the U.S. shows a very different risk of autonomous systems: Researchers modified a traffic sign for a speed limit of 80km/h using a patch pattern so that an intelligent sign recognition system would interpret sign as a stop sign. In a public road scenario, the autonomous vehicle would stop abruptly and possibly cause a rear-end collision. The researchers tested several such examples first in a simulation and then in real driving environments. In 90% of the test cases, the traffic signs were actually misinterpreted. Even the smallest changes in the environment can therefore lead to misinterpretations on the part of autonomous systems.
Verifiability as a further prerequisite for the safety of autonomous vehicles
Researchers agree that autonomous vehicles urgently need to be trained to deal with such “manipulations,” whether they are intentional or not. After all, even after autonomous vehicles become established on the road, they will need to continue to learn. Ontology-based simulations should also consider such risky scenarios and verify that autonomous systems are able to correct themselves and make the right decision despite unknown changes in the environment. The German Federal Office for Information Security wants to advocate harmonized guidelines that not only define standards for the development of autonomous vehicles, but also for their verifiability so that their behavior can be tracked. But what is the current legal situation regarding the use of AI in the EU?
EU guidelines strive for excellence and trust
In its Feb. 19, 2020, White Paper on AI, the European Commission committed to promoting the adoption of AI and formulating uniform guidelines for AI-based applications, taking into account safety-critical and ethical aspects. Meanwhile, the Commission has presented a proposal for the world’s first regulatory framework for AI. The regulation proposes to classify AI systems into four risk groups: minimal, low, high and unacceptable.
Autonomous vehicles that make decisions about people’s lives in critical cases are classified as high-risk AI systems. These systems are subject to particularly strict requirements with regard to their development and their documentation:
- A high quality of the data records fed into the system is required to keep risks as low as possible.
- Operations must be logged to enable traceability of results.
- Detailed documentation is a prerequisite for assessing the system’s compliance.
- Adequate risk assessment and mitigation systems must be in place.
- Clear and adequate information must be provided to the user.
- The system should be under adequate human supervision to minimize risks.
- A high level of robustness, security, and accuracy must be provided.
It is currently unclear when the regulation will actually come into force. Currently, it is being discussed in the European Parliament and the European Council.
Magility’s view on the challenges of using ontologies in autonomous vehicles and their testing
Ontology-based testing, due to its ability to automatically generate a wide variety of traffic scenarios, offers a promising approach that could finally accelerate the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles on the road. However, as long as no harmonized regulations apply, manufacturers will find it difficult to ensure the long-term conformity of their vehicles. Legislators are lagging behind the rapidly advancing development and thus the constantly added new possibilities and technologies of AI in automotive applications. Directives must not only be put into force as quickly as possible, but must also be evaluated at appropriate intervals to ensure that they are up to date. In the case of the regulation presented so far, the European Commission envisages the first review only after three years – the need for new urgent safety standards could already arise at much shorter intervals.
Meanwhile, society is still skeptical about fully autonomous driving. A recent study showed that US (19%), German (18%), French and British (17%) customers are the least enthusiastic when it comes to the adoption of autonomous driving.
„Any technological innovation can only be as successful as the social acceptance behind it.“
(Dr. Nari Kahle, Young Global Leader and Head of Strategic Programs at Volkswagen’s software company Cariad)
The extent to which tests based on ontologies can positively influence the lack of trust in autonomous vehicles by society in terms of their potential for guaranteed safety of autonomous vehicles or the EU legal framework remains exciting. Manufacturers will ultimately have to prove that autonomous driving is safer than humans at the wheel and that the number of road accidents can be increasingly reduced by autonomous driving.
At magility, we continue to closely follow the progress of autonomous mobility and keep you up to date on the latest developments. Feel free to contact our experts at magility for an exchange on this topic!
[infobox headline=”At a glance”]
- Ontologies offer an innovative approach to test the safety of autonomous vehicles compared to conventional test methods.
- Based on information such as road conditions, road users and traffic lights, ontologies can describe the driving environments of autonomous vehicles.
- With ontologies, more test scenarios can be generated faster. Rare accident scenarios that are difficult to reproduce can also be run more reliably.
- The European Commission is committed to promoting the adoption of AI and ensuring an excellent level of safety and trust in its use.
- A Commission draft of the world’s first regulatory framework for AI is available. Autonomous vehicles are considered high-risk systems and are subject to special requirements regarding development and documentation.
- Creating social trust in autonomous vehicles is becoming an additional challenge for manufacturers.
[/infobox]
by Nada Welker | Jul 8, 2022 | Automotive Cyber Security, Automotive Industry, Cyber Security Management, Future Trends, Know-How and inspiration, Market development & Trends, News from magility, strategy in change
At the 26th International Automotive Electronics Congress 2022 in Ludwigsburg, the top industry event for electronics experts and decision-makers in the automotive sector, the focus was on the path to the software-defined car. What does it take in the automotive industry to develop the software-defined car safely, efficiently and sustainably? What are the automotive industry’s current pain points in this multi-layered challenge? What role do regulations play? Do we need cross-border standards to get there? And what role do consumer experiences play? How are the individual players in the automotive industry meeting the current challenges, and why are open source approaches and cooperation particularly important now? Many questions, but also controversial discussions, characterized the traditional congress at the Forum am Schlosspark. Despite many answers, also many questions remained unanswered. The conclusion: There is still a lot to do!
The software-defined car
Up to now, software has been and still is to a large extent very closely linked to the hardware module or electronic control unit (ECU) in the vehicle, which takes over a very specific functionality there. In the “traditional car”, the software hardly evolved during the life of a vehicle and any necessary updates required a visit to the workshop. In the software-defined car, functions are defined by the software rather than the specific hardware modules, similar to applications we run on our smartphones or computers. This allows the functions to evolve and improve throughout the life of the vehicle and even add new functions and features as necessary within the hardware limits. With the software-defined vehicle, new features and services or apps are enabled in the vehicle as needed, either individually or for a limited time. This creates multiple opportunities for new business models, and software-as-a-service becomes tangible for car users. The value of a vehicle can even be increased during its life cycle by adding features at a later stage. Manufacturers’ focus on user experience is becoming a critical success factor. Data can be transmitted over-the-air (OTA), the vehicle can communicate with the infrastructure, collect and send data to the cloud, and receive data. Mobility services, automated driving and the further development of e-mobility are only made possible by software. So the car continues to evolve into a software-centric electronic device on wheels. This no longer has much to do with the original way an automobile worked. The automotive industry is still in the midst of transformation and must open itself up to an even greater extent to market participants from and cooperations with the software and communications industry.
The most important topics and statements of the speakers
After the opening by Alfred Vollmer, Editor-in-Chief of “Automobil-Elektronik” and initiator of the Automotive Electronics Congress, Ricky Hudi took over the moderation and handed over to the first speaker of the day, Porsche CEO Oliver Blume, who spoke about Porsche’s vision of the future and appealed to the emotions of the audience. In this regard, when it came to software-defined vehicle, the use of an open operating system that works with AI and enables the vehicle to connect to different ecosystems around the world was particularly important to him. He also clearly stood for the recognition of the human factor and emphasized the importance of bringing employees along in the transformation and placing them at the center of concepts for success. After all, he said, the transformation cannot be mastered without motivated employees who share the company’s vision and brand values and understand and internalize the necessary steps on the way to the software-defined vehicle.
The future strategy at Mercedes-Benz was the focus of the keynote speech by Magnus Österberg, Head of Software at the Stuttgart-based automaker. It became quite clear: Mercedes-Benz claims market leadership in the luxury segment. The new MB.OS operating system (to go into series production in 2024) and the software development center in Sindelfingen play a decisive role in achieving the ambitious goals. However, Österberg was also critical: “We are leaders in the field of electrical engineering, but there is still a long way to go before we become market leaders in the field of software.”
The world’s largest automotive supplier has managed the transformation from a pure hardware company to a software company, said Mathias Pillin (President Cross Domain Computing Solutions at Bosch). Today, however, the biggest challenge of a Tier 1 is to make it clear to the OEM that not only hardware, but also software has an independent value. It is the software, he said, that makes it possible to process data from a connected vehicle in the quantity and quality to provide individual services and functions.
Dipti Vachani, SVP Automotive and IoT at arm, sees an interplay between hardware and software: “Software-defined vehicles need specific computing power and hardware tailored to the workload of the car. To achieve this, software development today must be integrated into the vehicle development process at a very early stage and meet different demands for performance and compatibility. This compatibility across the entire vehicle is and remains a major challenge for manufacturers. For her, the interlocking further development of hardware and software is the top priority.
Panel discussion “Semiconductors: The Base of the Software-defined Car”.
Moderated by Alfred Vollmer (Automotive Electronics), Jens Fabrowsky (Bosch), Calista Redmond (RISC-V International), Dipti Vachani (arm), Lars Reger (NXP) and Magnus Östberg (Mercedes-Benz), discussed the position of semiconductors in the automotive sector. Commenting on the reports and rumors that OEMs are now building their own chips, Lars Rieger of NXP said, “Let’s dispel the myths a bit. Tesla gets 99% of its chips from companies like us. All they have done is develop an AI accelerator.” And on semiconductor shortages, he commented, “98% of all automotive semiconductors will be above 20 nm in the next 15 years.” Arm’s Dipti Vachani emphasized that innovation has not slowed down due to Corona and that the industry is moving like never before. Magnus Östberg argued that the industry should become more professional in dealing with risks. All the panelists were equally clear that scaling must become the focus of attention.
User experience as a central feature of the software-defined vehicle
The vehicle as the ultimate mobile device: a major topic at the congress. According to Stephan Durach, SVP Connected Company Development at BMW, hardware is increasingly taking a back seat, while intuitive, natural interaction in the car is becoming more and more important. At BMW, this is implemented in the form of a virtual assistant or intelligent navigation. However, it would remain exciting to see what would happen with Apple’s Car Play system, for example, should conflicts of interest arise on the subject of user interface.
When it came to the topic of user experience, three speakers were very much in agreement: Dirk Walliser, SVP Corporate Research & Development at the ZF Group, got to the heart of the matter in his very interesting presentation. The software-defined vehicle is much more than just software. It is much more about the user experience. As far as the cost structure is concerned, however, it is still not clear who will bear the costs for additional software functions in the future: The OEM or the customer?
At Harman International, the focus is also on the consumer experience. For Christian Sobottka, President of the Automotive Division, customers rightly expect to find everything they use on their smartphones in their cars within a very short time. And Riclef Schmidt-Clausen, SVP Domain Intelligent Cockpit & Body at Cariad, noted that smartphone manufacturers clearly still lead the way in user experience. Reaching this level in the automotive industry is a major challenge, he said.
Collaboration as the key to success?
Christoph Hartung (ETAS) spoke about how this challenge could be solved quickly in his presentation, which also contained quite provocative statements: There is no more hierarchical industry than the automotive industry, and AUTOSAR (an initiative to create an open software architecture for ECUs) was founded in 2003 because the industry was “deep in the sh***” at that time. Currently, we are again in a similar situation with the further development of the user interface in the software-defined vehicle, says Hartung – but the willingness to cooperate is basically there in the industry. Karsten Michels, Head of Productline at Continental Automotive, put it similarly, but less provocatively: “Collaboration is the key, we’re all in the same boat.”
Calista Redmond, CEO of RISC-V International brought the topic of open source collaboration model to the stage with a lot of enthusiasm. RISC-V is a free and open ISA that aims to enable a new era of processor innovation through open standards collaboration.
Other presentations by top-notch speakers on exciting insights enriched the congress.
The setting and the atmosphere
For the 26th time already, the doors of the congress opened, which every year is the central meeting point for almost 600 industry experts, mainly from the automotive electrics/electronics sector. The “Great Reunion of the Industry”, as the congress is also fondly called, takes place at the Forum am Schlosspark in Ludwigsburg. For the first time, the event was held exclusively in English – whether this contributed to the quality of the congress is something we at magility critically question. Criticism was also voiced among the participants that with a proportion of German-speaking visitors of certainly at least 90%, a great deal was “lost in translation”. Visitors were able to visit the accompanying trade exhibition before the lecture rooms and find out about the latest developments from exhibitors in the industry live and make contacts. At the culinary networking event in the evening in the neighboring riding hall, the mood was relaxed; many finally saw each other in person for the first time after two years of pandemic.
We were struck this year by the slight increase in the number of female visitors, both on and off stage. With a share of about 3% of the total number of visitors, however, there is still plenty of room for improvement!
The number of female attendees was clearly reflected in the visit to the ladies’ toilets. Conclusion: At this congress the men have to queue 😉
magility Insights
We from magility met many business partners at the congress, had interesting conversations and were pleased to be able to network in person again. As always, the congress was smoothly organized. Thematically, it was more about “in the vehicle” and less about networking and infrastructure, which plays an equally important role in the software-defined vehicle for us at magility. The topic of fleet clearly came up short for us and the subject matter of the speakers has changed only minimally from the time before Corona. Cooperations are important, almost all participants agreed on that. This was also the case before Corona. However, few cooperations were presented this year, which may be an unintended side effect of the Corona pandemic with its contact restrictions.
For us from magility, the presentation by Huawei was very impressive, in which it was explained what has already been implemented and achieved there in the last 3 years. Huawei introduced its first electric car Seres Huawei Smart Selection SF5 only last year and the speed with which Huawei is on the move in the further development of intelligent automotive solutions should shake up all other market players. In their presentations the German companies talked even more about what should be implemented.
The road to the software-defined vehicle is without a doubt one of the key challenges for the German automotive industry that needs to be tackled with verve and without delay. Here in the Stuttgart metropolitan region, we have the best prerequisites for helping to shape the mobility of the future on a solid basis if we approach the new market participants with an open mind, see cooperation as an opportunity, and rely at least in part on uniform software development. Not everyone has to cook their own soup. But together we have the chance to turn the soup into a star menu! Let’s do great things together! We at magility are happy to help!
by Julia Riemer | May 18, 2022 | Automotive Industry, Automotive Cyber Security, Cyber Security Management, Future Trends, Market development & Trends, strategy in change
Software Defined Products describe a new type of product that focuses on software rather than hardware and is used to deliver a wide variety of solutions.
The characteristics of Software Defined Products
Software Defined Products can be described in terms of the following characteristics:
- Product benefits become programmable: Large parts of a product’s range of functions and benefits can only be accessed digitally and are controlled via apps or digital displays.
- Product release = software update: New features are installed and made available as software updates. The customer no longer has to wait for the new device or hardware generation.
- Differentiation via software functions and usability: The hardware and material properties of products gradually recede into the background. In the future, a significant part of the product benefit will be derived from software-based functionalities, sensor technology and the networking of devices to form a holistic IoT solution.
Consequently, software development becomes a central aspect of the product life cycle. From prototyping to the production phase, software is the key variable that significantly influences product development.
Potential, complexity and cost
In the heat of the battle around digitalization, analytics and the cloud, it’s easy to overlook the advances currently taking place in infrastructure and operations. Today, the entire operating environment – servers, storage and network – can be virtualized and automated. The data center of the future offers the potential to not only reduce costs, but also dramatically increase speed and reduce the complexity of deploying, implementing and maintaining technologies. “Software Defined Everything” can make infrastructure investments much more cost effective and thus become a competitive advantage.
Challenge to the Mobility Industry – Establishing Holistic Software System Competence
Software-driven change is taking place in all industries. The automotive industry has also been in the midst of structural change for years: connected services have been around for decades, cars already contain up to 100 electronic control units supported by millions of lines of code, and advanced AI algorithms are being developed for autonomous driving. Hardware and software engineering for automotive systems is fundamentally changing to include advanced embedded and cloud technologies, distributed computing, real-time systems, and distributed safety systems.
Automobile manufacturer and software system competence
Nevertheless, most automakers are currently unable to build software-defined dream cars. Some companies have even failed to survive structural change, and it is certainly a mistake to disregard key indicators of potential large-scale upheaval. Particular attention should be paid to players in other industries, such as telecommunications. These often enter the automotive industry market with superior technology. The hardware- and software-intensive systems in modern cars offer many new possibilities, but they also require careful design, implementation, verification and validation before they can be released to users. To manage the rapidly growing complexity, automotive software needs a clear architecture. Of course, the architecture must also meet SW/HW quality, functional safety, and cybersecurity requirements.
Two converging trends
Despite delays caused by the pandemic, players in the automotive industry must focus on the transition to products whose characteristics are determined to a large extent by the software implemented; indeed, they must accelerate this transition now. There are signs that automotive sales will recover. And it stands to reason that the pandemic will foster a customer base that is inclined toward car ownership for safety reasons and is also accustomed to software-based features – two trends that will converge, with car buyers preferring vehicles that incorporate the same software-based options they already rely on at home, work and play. To prepare for this demand, automakers must put software at the center of their operations and products – with the help of a holistic software systems capability. Agile service delivery models combining DevOps, microservices, and cloud solutions will enable functional changes that go far beyond the traditional V-development approach. The software-defined car combines different types of hardware and software architectures, and HW/SW designers and architects will need to be familiar with a range of paradigms and best practices from different hardware and software disciplines.
Big Data Services, Autonomous Driving, Smart City and Smart Grids
A smart city is essentially defined by information and communication technologies (ICT). It is about meeting the growing challenges of urbanization. A large part of this ICT framework is an intelligent network of interconnected objects and machines that transmits data using wireless technology and cloud applications.
Cloud-based IoT applications
Cloud-based IoT applications receive, analyze, and manage data in real time to help municipalities, businesses, and citizens make better decisions that can improve quality of life.
Smart City Ecosystems
Citizens interact with smart city ecosystems in a variety of ways, using smartphones and mobile devices as well as connected cars and homes. Linking devices and data to a city’s physical infrastructure and services can reduce costs and improve sustainability. For example, communities can use the IoT to improve energy distribution, streamline garbage collection, reduce traffic congestion, and improve air quality.
Examples of the automotive sector in a smart city:
- Autonomous driving: Locomotion with the aid of vehicles, mobile robots and driverless transport systems that behave largely autonomously.
- Smart grids combine generation, storage and consumption. A central control system optimally coordinates them with each other and thus balances out power fluctuations – especially those caused by fluctuating renewable energies – in the grid.
- Smart traffic control: Networked traffic lights receive data from sensors and cars and adjust traffic light switching and timing to traffic volumes in real time to reduce congestion on the roads.
- Connected cars can communicate with parking meters and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations to direct drivers to the nearest available parking space.
- Smart trash cans automatically send data to waste management companies and schedule pickups on demand, rather than on a predetermined schedule.
- Smart administration: And citizens’ smartphones become mobile driver’s licenses and ID cards with digital badges, speeding and simplifying access to the city and local government services.
Together, these smart city technologies optimize infrastructure, mobility, public services and utilities. The automotive sector will benefit through comprehensive fleet and vehicle functions.
Software quality (ASPICE), functional safety and cyber security
In telecommunications, cyber security regulations were already introduced in the 1990s and early 2000s, and in the medical sector even earlier. And although the Internet capability of vehicles has also been technically realized for many years and software updates of many vehicles on the market already run over the air (OTA), i.e., wirelessly, the automotive industry has not particularly prioritized cybersecurity over the past 40 years, so that the industry is lagging behind many other sectors today. This is all the more threatening because vehicle functionality today relies on millions of lines of code, and communication buses such as CAN, LIN, and even Ethernet have become popular gateways for hacker attacks.
Cyber security as a critical factor for success
Cyber security has therefore become a critical factor for success and must become part of the company’s overall system function. All cyber security aspects must be considered across the entire value chain. Otherwise, there would be a constant danger of a third party taking control of the car while it is being driven.
The most important regulations at a glance
Since 2020, there are now also mandatory regulations on cyber security and software updates for the automotive industry and its players. For example, a holistic Cyber Security Management System (CSMS) and a Software Update Management System (SUMS) have become compulsory for vehicle manufacturers and their type approvals. We have reported on this several times before. ISO/DIS 24089 and ISO/SAE 21434 also play a role in the world of regulations, as well as ISO/TR 4804:2020 Road vehicles – Security and cyber security for automated driving systems – Design, verification and validation and the TISAX® (Trusted Information Security Assessment Exchange) standard of the VDA. TISAX® focuses on the needs of the automotive industry: a certification for automotive suppliers is intended to ensure information security in the automotive industry. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) published the Automotive SPICE for Cybersecurity guide last February. Automotive Spice, or ASPICE, stands for Automotive Software Process Improvement and Capability Determination, and is amongst others intended to evaluate the performance of OEMs and their suppliers software development processes in the automotive industry.
All these new regulations now serve as a basis for any company working with OEMs, as well as for the automotive manufacturers themselves.
Fleet (lifecycle), system (vehicle), subsystem and components – we focus on all of them
The (further) development of vehicle software offers a multitude of opportunities for your company:
- Meeting dynamic expectations of customers
- Providing new functionalities
- Ensuring traffic safety through high-quality software
- Meeting quality requirements through appropriate testing
- Predictive diagnostics and fleet management as well as telematics
- Secure access to vehicle data from any location
- Enabling firmware updates over the air
- Software for vehicle tracking
- Developing vehicle navigation software that meets the needs of electric vehicle drivers
Automotive Software Engineering is the link between backend software applications and the hardware components of a vehicle.
The need for over-the-air (OTA) updates for software
The market for over-the-air (OTA) updates in the automotive industry has changed dramatically over the past year. Major automakers are pushing to roll out widespread use of OTA and deploy it for connected vehicles. New regulations for both OTA and cybersecurity have recently been passed (we reported on this) and more will be needed as the technology advances.
- There are regulations that define the obligations of OEMs and suppliers when updating software to meet legal requirements.
- The technical prerequisites for OTA updates and the know-how are already available.
- In the future, automotive OEMs will not only “push” software updates but also other features over the air into vehicles. OTA transfers must therefore work for car manufacturers and will become a necessary competitive differentiator. Here lies great potential for new revenue streams.
- Car buyers expect reliable and convenient OTA update functionality.
- The use of OTA-transfer for additional functionality in connected cars is growing rapidly.
OTA software updates are on a rapid growth path. This trend is creating a strong market for OTA clients and an even larger market for cloud OTA services.
magility and Software Defined Products
Software Defined Products are more and more in the focus of all industries and especially of the automotive industry and its suppliers. Regardless of their size, this development will have a profound impact on companies. New strategies are needed to ensure survival in increasingly complex markets. At magility, we support companies in reviewing and adapting their corporate strategy, taking into account all the new factors impacted by the IoT, and in identifying and implementing measures for strategy implementation. This also includes the integration of new service segments and, if necessary, entire new business units. In this context, we cooperate with the International Institute of Information Technology in Bangalore, India. Dr. Roland Haas is a professor at IIITB and our specialist for Software Defined Products, OTA and software system competence for the automotive industry. Contact us now – we will be happy to answer your questions.
Follow us for more news also on LinkedIn. We are looking forward to meeting you!
by Nada Welker | Sep 20, 2021 | Alternative Drives, Automotive Industry, New Mobility, Smart City, Startups
400,000 visitors from 95 countries, nearly 1000 speakers and 744 exhibitors gathered at the new IAA Mobility last week. Among them were car manufacturers, important players of the tech industry, numerous relevant companies of the supply industry and suppliers of micromobility products. As every time, we from magility were again active on site.
The new concept
This year, the IAA Mobility presented itself in Munich for the first time in a completely new way. Very ambitious, hybrid in presence and online version, as well as in a B2B and a B2C version. The B2B section was located on the exhibition grounds themselves, while the B2C area was placed in the center of the city. Many areas could be visited free of charge on Munich’s most popular squares, even without a ticket. Those who were not there in person were able to experience the show digitally via IAA Mobility’s new virtual platform.
The demonstrators
In particular, the squares in the city were protected by massive police presence. There has not been a larger police contingent in Germany since the 2017 G20 Summit in Hamburg. Numerous demonstrators gathered at different squares and demanded a turn away from the still car-dominated traffic policy. They stood up for pedestrian, bicycle and local traffic, abseiled from highway bridges, organized a bicycle star ride as well as pedestrian demonstrations or took part in a so-called protest camp on the Theresienwiese. Demonstrators accused the makers of the IAA Mobility of being nothing more than a platform for the image polish of politics and business.
Our impression – magility on site
During our walk around the fair, we could already clearly see the transition from a pure car show to a mobility exhibition. Different vehicle solutions and forms of mobility have found their way into the trade fair. The new IAA Mobility is no longer a pure car show where OEMs present their cars with powerful combustion engines. Only a few vehicles with combustion engines were to be found at the fair, but unfortunately also almost no exhibitors from abroad. The IAA Mobility is supposed to become a networking event and a platform for cooperation as well as for new business models, micro-mobility and urban policy. Under one roof, or one sky, many players came together to shape the mobility of the future.
In her opening speech at the IAA, Chancellor Merkel spoke of a real quantum leap compared to the last IAA. The networking of all forms of mobility was clearly the focus. In addition to the automakers, numerous suppliers, tech startups, bicycle brands and other micro-mobility providers with new offerings bustled around the exhibition areas. On different stages, there were discussions and lectures about the new forms of mobility, and everything related to them. It was also about the cities of the future, about cyber security, about traffic concepts and, of course, about the further advancement of networking.
A tangible vision of the city of the future, climate-neutral, without noise and congestion and with a multimodal and safe traffic concept, has not yet emerged for us at the fair. Due to the very ambitious, future-oriented and decentralized concept and due to the integration of the numerous forms of locomotion, one sometimes felt a bit lost in the large halls or on the streets. The path taken by the makers of the IAA Mobility is a first small step in the right direction and, from magility’s point of view, has great potential for the future. As is well known, transformation away from the tried-and-true to the experimental new never runs smoothly and requires support from experts who can combine the old and the new in a meaningful way.
The biggest weakness of the current concept is the inadequate implementation of the B2B concept. As in the old days, almost all exhibitors have sent pure sales teams to the trade show booths. However, there is a lack of qualified developers and buyers to bring the B2B concept to real life.
The car manufacturers
Electric vehicles clearly dominate the show floor at IAA Mobility. The industry has realized that it needs to rethink and the politically prescribed framework conditions seem to be taking effect. We were able to find only a few vehicles with classic combustion engines at the IAA. This effect is already reflected in the registration statistics of the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA, 2020), which records a total of 25% of registrations for the e-vehicle and hybrid segments. This is almost on a par with diesel (28%), while gasoline still clearly leads with 47% of registrations. The OEMs are therefore perfectly capable of meeting current demand.
The principle of “more sustainable, smarter, shared economy” is increasingly replacing the old principle of “faster, stronger and wider”. At the IAA Mobility, this development has not yet taken hold in the OEM passenger cars on display. For potential buyers from the cross-section of the German population, the range of offers there is still inadequate. According to a study by Statista on the willingness of the German population to spend on the purchase of a passenger car in 2020, only about 6% of the population who planned to buy a new car in 2020 wanted to invest more than €25,000 in this purchase.
The only car at the show with a purchase price below €25,000 was VW’s ID.Life, although according to Volkswagen brand boss Ralf Brandstätter, it will not be available on the market until 2025. So we looked in vain for available electric vehicles for the mass market at the IAA Mobility, as well as hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Internationality was sorely missed at the IAA and should be restored at subsequent trade shows. In addition, the IAA Mobility does not cover the complete range of mobility, because motorcycles, air cabs, hyperloops, electric planes, supersonic aircrafts and spaceships are missing.
Our conclusion: IAA Mobility 2021 was, as always, exciting and at the same time already very different from the past. But for it to be sustainable, it needs to change a lot more. The direction is right, the design still needs significant corrective loops.
The suppliers
The suppliers moved much more into the center of attention at the IAA Mobility. The major suppliers (Tier1) met the automakers on an equal footing. This was quite different at the “old” IAA. Here, a clear shift is visible and the industry “behind” it is more visible. Among suppliers, too, the focus is clearly on electromobility and alternative drive technologies. Bosch, for example, announced at the IAA Mobility that electromobility would become the core business for the company in the future and presented the newly developed “eAxis“, which combines power electronics, electric motor and transmission into a single unit. Continental and Schaeffler also showed innovations around the topic of alternative drives at the trade show.
At the press conference, Wolf-Henning Scheider, Chief Executive Officer of the ZF Group, presented the ZF strategy “Next Generation Mobility. NOW“. He also presented the so-called “Modular eDrive Kit“, a modular construction kit consisting of coordinated components which, in addition to e-motors, also offers inverters, software, and various transmission options. According to Scheider, it bundles the entire expertise of the ZF e-mobility team in system solutions, components and software control in a flexible and modular platform. The consistent modular approach of the eDrive Kit is the optimal complement to the platform strategy of vehicle manufacturers. With the modular drive solution for purely electric passenger cars, ZF promises up to 50 percent shorter development times as well as high maturity levels. From compact cars to the premium segment, everything can be mapped.
The ZF example shows, as do Huawei, Schaeffler, Bosch, Tesla, and others, that the intelligence of future vehicles will be determined by a few, extremely powerful central computers such as the ZF ProAI. According to ZF, the ZF ProAI is the most flexible, scalable, and powerful automotive-grade supercomputer for the automotive industry, effectively becoming the source of vehicle intelligence.
The changeover process from conventional driveline technology to electromobility represents a massive qualification effort in the coming years, also for suppliers, who will have to adapt their services and products to the new requirements. From magility’s point of view, some suppliers are already well ahead of the vehicle manufacturers, while others will not survive this next evolutionary step.
The startups
Startups were much more in focus at the IAA Mobility compared to the last IAA. The startup booths were centrally located next to the big players in the industry and therefore very accessible to trade show visitors. They had the opportunity to network with investors, international partners and political representatives at the numerous networking events and to participate in master classes, discussion panels and lectures. The IAA Mobility Founders Day – a networking event – also reached progressive target groups of the IAA. Many of the most exciting developments came not from the established manufacturers, for example, but precisely from these new young companies and the startups. For example, Johann Jungwirth, Vice President of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) at Mobileye, announced a small sensation from the field of autonomous driving. Starting in 2022, a robot cab service is to be offered in Munich together with the car rental company Sixt, which is to operate without a safety driver. Approval has already been applied for. Tech startups are ahead of established providers, primarily due to their faster development cycles. Many startups from the ADAS sector were also represented at the show. So was Cognata, an Israeli company that offers full product lifecycle simulation for developers of ADAS and autonomous vehicles. We will report on these and other interesting startups at the IAA and their high-tech developments in another article.
Micromobility at the IAA
Cars were not the only focus of attention at this year’s IAA. Micromobility providers also got involved in the trade show action for the first time. Bicycles are in vogue, and even classic car manufacturers such as Porsche are getting involved in the micromobility-market: In cooperation with German bicycle manufacturer Storck Bicycle, Porsche has launched a new brand called Cyklaer. This brand offers fast e-bikes at Porsche’s price level. BMW is active in the cargo bike sector with its “Dynamic Cargo” concept, and VW is also involved with its “e-Bike Cargo” cargo bike, which is even due to be launched this year. Young companies and startups are also getting involved in the micromobility sector at this year’s IAA Mobility. We will report on this in a separate article.
Our conclusion
The path to climate-neutral mobility that is affordable and available to all is visibly progressing, even if there are still some long-established views and behaviors to be rethought along the way! The IAA Mobility has picked up on this trend and given a starting signal with the new concept. The design can be further developed and can move in a promising direction. This year, IAA Mobility was clearly focused on e-drives. ADAS and e-mobility topics were definitely the focus of the show. Suppliers of micro-mobility-products also made their mark at the show. It was also clear to us that the convergence of industries will play an even more important role in the future. Platform providers are now playing a major role in the automotive industry. Huawei in particular stood out to us with its end-to-end solution from the cloud to the vehicle architecture. So telecommunications companies are no longer just appearing on the sidelines in the automotive market. They are right in the middle of the action, and car manufacturers will have to dress warmly. For the next IAA in 2023, we at magility expect the topic of autonomous driving to move further into the spotlight of the trade show.
All in all, we look back on a very interesting trade fair and are already looking forward to the exciting development steps that will (have to) be taken through the mobility transformation by 2023. We are enthusiastically supporting the startups from our network in placing their high-tech developments in the right place at the right time here in Europe. For the industrial companies, we evaluate and review new innovative business models and accompany them during integration and market launch. With our experts in the field of electromobility and alternative drives, we also monitor this submarket. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.
by Nada Welker | Jul 20, 2021 | Automotive Industry, Future Trends, New Mobility, strategy in change
The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation. Digitization and artificial intelligence are the two drivers that, individually but also in combination, have the potential to fundamentally change the business models of this industry. Back in 2018, we pointed out in our article “Smart Mobility- where is the journey of mobility heading?” that traditional carmakers will have to adapt their business models, because components that cannot be digitally controlled or integrated are no longer relevant for automotive manufacturing today. “Smart mobility” as a key element of the “smart city” is the order of the day, i.e. the increasing networking of transport infrastructure and means of transport, and only vehicles designed to match this integration are still marketable today. OEMs are making correspondingly great efforts to keep pace with developments and to influence and shape them through technical innovations and the adaptation of their business models. However, in doing so, especially with regard to the all-dominant topic of autonomous driving, they are encountering fierce competition from established IT giants, which is ensuring that there is a growing willingness to enter into strategic collaborations in important fields.
Transformation from pure automaker to integrated mobility group with software expertise
As a result of the advancing digital transformation and the increasing use of artificial intelligence, the entire automotive industry and its whole supply chain is undergoing a transformation process of unprecedented proportions. In this process, artificial intelligence offers completely new possibilities for adapting to the individual needs of vehicle owners and drivers. Functions such as the designable on-screen cockpit, voice control, control panels or touch screens for controlling interior functions such as heating, seats or navigation play a central role here. These technical innovations contribute to the fact that the car has long since grown beyond the stage of a simple means of transportation.
Last year, the software and technology company CARIAD was launched, a subsidiary of Europe’s largest automaker, the Volkswagen Group. CARIAD aims to accompany Volkswagen’s transformation into a digital, software-based mobility provider. This includes, among other things, the development of driver assistance systems and the software for autonomous driving. Furthermore, the focus is on increasing VW’s innovation speed, which should initially lead to a new automotive experience that seamlessly integrates into our digital world.
“The transformation in the automotive industry over the next ten to 15 years will be incomparable to what we have seen so far” (quote Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess).
According to the Volkswagen Group’s own statements, 4,000 developers, engineers and designers from Audi, Porsche and Volkswagen are currently working worldwide on a uniform, central software for the vehicles of the entire Volkswagen Group. The uniform operating system is expected to find its way into all Volkswagen Group models starting in 2025. By that year, the number of employees is expected to grow to around 10,000. Almost 2.5 million EURO will be invested annually in the CARIAD software.
Current challenges for the automotive industry
In addition to the transformation to electromobility, advancing digitalization is causing fundamental changes in the automotive industry. While electromobility is exclusively about CO2-saving drive options, digitalization represents a more profound change for customers and, beyond that, for the entire mobility industry. Consequently, business models will change fundamentally in the future. This also becomes clear when looking at statistics that show how the distribution of sales in the automotive industry will change by 2030.
The statistics shown clearly indicate that digital services as well as new technologies and software solutions, which previously played hardly any role in the automotive industry, will account for a significant share of global automotive sales by 2030.
Competition gives rise to strategic cooperation
In the mobility services sector, the two competitors BMW and Daimler are entering into a strategic alliance to cooperate in some business areas in the future. The aim of their cooperation is to drive forward automated driving. By networking the expertise of the two technology leaders, the aim is to generate tangible benefits for customers as well as cost savings. As early as 2025, the first self-driving cars from Daimler and BMW are expected to be on the road on highways and parking without human control, i.e. with autonomy level four of five of the so-called SAE levels. The SAE levels describe how independently and autonomously a vehicle can act in road traffic. Level four includes complete control and monitoring on highways and when parking – but in city traffic, the driver must still intervene himself, which is why the steering wheel and pedals must still be present.
BMW and Daimler board members agree:
“Instead of individual stand-alone solutions, we are concerned with a reliable overall system that brings tangible benefits to our customers” (quote Daimler CEO Ola Källenius)
Waymo in first place in the transformation to autonomous driving
Waymo was launched in 2009 as Google’s self-driving car project. For several years, Waymo has been involved in the future operation of autonomous vehicles and holds the leading position in this sector.
“We are building the world’s most experienced driver” (quote on Waymo website).
Waymo’s vehicles have already been tested several times on public roads, numerous traffic situations have been recreated, and the collected data from these journeys has been evaluated and used for further developments. This is therefore not a driver assistance system in which the driver is still actively at the wheel, but a fully autonomous technology. The “Waymo Driver” has full control from pickup to destination. Using a perception system that decodes complex data collected by multiple sensors and accurately captures the environment, it can detect and identify pedestrians, vehicles, stop signs and more. The goal is to make traffic on the roads safer and easier. Since April 2, 2018, the first self-driving vehicles, without a driver behind the wheel, have been registered in the US state of California – so far without any major incidents or traffic accidents.
Apple as a serious competitor of the future?
What is certain is that the software in the vehicle will become one of the most important revenue generators in mobility in the future. Autonomous driving will make an important contribution to individual mobility. For this reason, it would not be unlikely for the IT group Apple to enter the automotive industry. Its distinctive software competencies could open up new opportunities and doors for the technology company. Reports about the probably planned “Apple Car” have been circulating for 2 years already. When and whether an electric vehicle from Apple will actually reach market maturity is currently still written in the stars – but it is not unlikely!
[infobox headline=”Summary in a nutshell”]
- Traditional automakers will have to adapt their business models, because components that cannot be digitally controlled or integrated are becoming less and less important.
- Artificial intelligence brings new opportunities for customization to meet the individual needs of the driver.
- The technology company CARIAD, a subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group, is taking its first steps toward transforming Volkswagen into a digital, software-based mobility provider.
- BMW and Daimler are entering into a collaboration to advance automated driving. As early as 2025, the first self-driving cars from Daimler and BMW are expected to be on the road.
- This is autonomy level four. It includes complete control and monitoring on highways and when parking.
- Waymo is engaged in the future operation of autonomous vehicles and takes the leading position in this field.
- It is a fully autonomous technology – so there is no need for a driver to be in the car.
- Digitalization is leading to a decisive transformation in the automotive industry – and we are right in the middle of it.
[/infobox]
If we allow ourselves a leap in time to the year 2030, the automotive industry could look like this:
- Mobility providers use higher-level traffic control to utilize traffic and reduce congestion.
- Autonomous vehicles make up at least 30% of vehicles in cities, including mainly buses and cabs.
- Extensive connected services and electric drives are implemented in new vehicles.
- Full synchronization of connected services in the car and smartphone apps.
- Possibility of switching on equipment elements for the vehicles.
- New production and logistics concepts: 3D printing of spare parts and components.
- Driver assistance systems have become so established and advanced that they can learn independently and individually from the respective driver through the use of AI and thus cover individual customer needs.
- At least 50% of business processes in the automotive industry are automated.
As a result of digitalization, the automotive industry is facing a decisive transformation: car manufacturers are being driven to adapt their vehicles to the spirit of the times and to rely on new digital business models. The trend toward autonomous driving is becoming increasingly relevant: Currently, we are still at the stage of partially automated driving using assistance systems. In some vehicles, you can already find functions such as automatic overtaking of other cars, automatic lane changing, and the ability to leave braking and parking to the vehicle without the driver’s influence. However, fully autonomous vehicles can so far only be used on test tracks with special permission. Yet, the full-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles is already being planned. But it is still uncertain when the necessary infrastructure and legal framework will be in place. We at magility will be happy to keep you up to date on further developments in the automotive industry. The transformation is picking up speed, and we are right in the middle of it. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us!
